If you’re concerned that the Federal Reserve will derail the bond market when it finally starts raising interest rates, the last two tightening cycles suggest those worries may be overblown.
Instead of tumbling, U.S. debt securities from Treasuries to junk bonds gained. They returned an average 5.7 percent between June 2004 and June 2006, when the Fed lifted rates to 5.25 percent from 1 percent. In the seven months ended January 2000, bonds retained their value even as benchmark borrowing costs increased 1.75 percentage points.
